Texas Poll Path 2026
What has to happen across Texas to win, or for the polls to be right?
The polls have Talarico at — of the vote between him and Paxton. In 2024, Democrat Colin Allred got — against Ted Cruz. Who is showing up to vote so far covers — of that gap. The other — has to come from voters choosing differently than they did in 2024, in nearly every county.
To win, Talarico needs at least 50.1% of the vote between him and Paxton. In 2024, Democrat Colin Allred got — against Ted Cruz. Who is showing up to vote so far covers — of that gap. The other — has to come from voters choosing differently than they did in 2024, in nearly every county.
The polls have Hinojosa at — of the vote between her and Abbott. In 2022, Beto O’Rourke got — against Abbott. Who is showing up to vote so far covers — of that gap. The other — has to come from voters choosing differently than they did in 2022, in nearly every county.
To win, Hinojosa needs at least 50.1% of the vote between her and Abbott. In 2022, Beto O’Rourke got — against Abbott. Who is showing up to vote so far covers — of that gap. The other — has to come from voters choosing differently than they did in 2022, in nearly every county.
Early and mail ballots through —. Percentages count only the two main candidates. This shows what a result would take. It is not a forecast.
Change the assumptions
From the last result to the goal
Start with the last result and add what turnout has done. The third bar is what voters still have to change to reach the goal. The dashed line is 50%, a win.
Is it getting easier or harder?
How many points voters still have to change to reach the goal above, worked out again after each day of early voting. Up means that day’s turnout made it harder.
Where the votes have to come from, and how far along each county is
Each bar is the extra net votes the Democrat needs from a county compared with the last result at this year’s turnout. The dark part is already coming from who is showing up; the light part still has to come from voters changing sides. Tap a bar to see the county on the map.
Blue: a Democratic county voting more than usual, or a Republican county voting less than usual. Red: the reverse. Darker means further from the county’s usual share of the Texas vote. Gray counties are on pace.
Green: the county is on track to cast a bigger share of the Texas vote than last time. Orange: a smaller share. Darker means a bigger gap. Gray counties are on pace.
Each county is compared with its usual slice of the Texas vote. Ahead means it is on track to cast a bigger share of the state’s votes than last time; Behind means smaller. Net votes are the extra margin turnout alone hands each candidate.
Helping Talarico
Helping Hinojosa
Turnout so far is worth about — net votes to the Democrat: big Democratic cities voting at a high rate, and Republican suburbs and rural counties voting at a lower rate than usual.
Helping Paxton
Helping Abbott
Turnout so far is worth only about — net votes to the Republican. His path is for the — counties running behind, most of them Republican, to catch up before Election Day.
- Showing up
- Ahead or behind the county’s usual share of the Texas vote, with the size of the gap.
- Turnout effect
- Net votes turnout alone is worth: + helps the Democrat, − the Republican.
- Last time / Needs
- The winning margin last time, and the margin the county needs for the poll to be right. D+10 means the Democrat wins by 10 points.
The polls behind the number
Every poll with interviews ending Oct 5 or later. The polling average is the plain average of each poll’s result counting the two main candidates only.
| Pollster | Ended | Dem | Rep | Dem, two-way |
|---|
How this is built
- Starting point: the 2024 US Senate race (Allred v Cruz) for Senate and the 2022 Governor race (O’Rourke v Abbott) for Governor, county by county, from the Texas Secretary of State.
- Votes so far: county voter rosters for Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, Williamson and Montgomery; the Secretary of State’s daily county counts for the other 243. Days a county did not report are filled from its own recent pace. Mail ballots are estimated from 2024 where the state shows almost none. Titus, Hale, Hardeman and Young had past-year counts corrected against official results.
- Expected total: votes so far times how much each county grew from this point to Election Day in 2024, in 2022, or halfway between (the default, which comes closest to the Harris County forecast).
- Who’s showing up: each county’s expected share of the state’s two-candidate vote against its share in the starting race. The turnout effects add up exactly to the “Turnout so far adds” figure.
- Voters changing sides: the move every county would need, all the same size, for the state to land on the poll. “Lopsided counties move less” spreads the same move so very one-sided counties change less. This is a requirement, not a prediction; the Rio Grande Valley and the suburbs have moved differently in past elections.
- Counties with very irregular state counts (Culberson, Kenedy, Throckmorton, Winkler) should be read loosely. Early voting ends Friday; after that this reads as what Election Day has to look like.